There's nothing like a first-time win for a driver. But when it's the 101st win for the racing organization and a popular win in the garage, then it's truly something special. That was the scenario that played out last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway when Josh Berry drove the iconic No. 21 car into Victory Lane.
Berry, only in his the second year as a Cup Series driver, became the 20th different driver to win for the Wood Brothers. He joins a special group of 1st time winners who earned the Wood Brothers their last five victories: Harrison Burton (2024 Daytona summer race); Ryan Blaney (2017 Pocono); Trevor Bayne (2011 Daytona 500); and Elliott Sadler (2001 Bristol).
I'm not sure a first-time winner is on my bingo card for this week's race, I'm sure we'll get a primer on how to run the fastest line as close to the wall without hitting it (or not hitting it too hard ...) Oh and Josh Berry will be leading the field in P2 next to pole winner Alex Bowman.
This week's pick strategy: Think long-run and high line for today's race. Hendrick Motorsports drivers had great long run speed in practice, so I'm going heavy on HMS and adding in folks like Ryan Blaney and Bubba Wallace who looked good in practice. Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell are masters of the high line and deserve a consideration, although I am feeling more confident with Bell than Reddick this week.
Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last 5 Years):
By Race and Track
A.J. Allmendinger - 3
All with 2 - Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Austin Dillon
Drivers with Most Top 5s (Last 5 Years):
All with 2 - Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and A.J. Allmendinger
Drivers with Most Top 5s (Last 5 Years):
All with 2 - Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, and A.J. Allmendinger
Top 10 in Average Finish at Homestead-Miami Speedway
The Likely Suspects: Homestead go-tos are Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Austin Dillon, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Carson Hocevar, A.J.Allmendinger, and Chase Elliott.
My 2 Cents: My no-brainer
pick this week is Kyle Larson. My next picks are Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Bubba Wallace. I will
complete my roster with AJ Allmendinger and Chase Elliott.
My Fabulous 5 (Drivers most likely to finish in the Top 5): Tyler Reddick; Christopher Bell; Kyle Larson; Ryan Blaney; and Chase Elliott.
NASCAR Fantasy Live Line Up: Kyle Larson, Noah Gragson, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, and Denny Hamlin. And in the garage: Bubba Wallace.
Featured Match Ups: Berry over Keselowski; Larson over Reddick; Allmendinger over Hocevar; and Blaney over Hamlin.
Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Noah Gragson. Noah will be starting third in today's race, making it his best Cup Series start at Homestead. Noah won here in 2022 in the XFinity Series as part of a series-high eight
win tear to compete for the Xfinity Series championship (Phoenix Raceway, Talladega Superspeedway, Pocono Raceway,
Darlington Raceway, Kansas Speedway, Bristol Motor Speedway, Texas Motor
Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway.) In addition to that win, he has earned four Top 5 finishes in five
starts. Noah looked pretty confident yesterday. Let's see if he can take turn that confdence into a great run today.
Points to Ponder:
- The second starting position and the fifth starting position are the most proficient starting positions in the field producing more winners (four each) than any other starting position at Homestead-Miami Speedway (16%).
- Joe Gibbs Racing leads the series in wins at Homestead-Miami with nine victories, follwed by RFK Racing with 7.
- Five different manufacturers have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami Speedway, led by Ford and Toyota which are tied with eight victories each; followed by Chevrolet with seven.
- Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three (2009, 2013, 2020).
- Ryan Blaney (2023, 2024) leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in runner-up finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway with two second-place finishes.
- Denny Hamlin leads all active Cup Series drivers in top-five finishes at Homestead-Miami Speedway with six Top 5s. He also leads all active Cup Series drivers in Top 10s finishes at Homestead with 13.
- Christopher Bell leads all active Cup drivers in average finishing position at Homestead with an 8.8 in five starts.
- Kyle Larson leads all NASCAR Cup Series drivers in laps led at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 626 laps led out of 2,827 laps completed (22%) – 11 starts.
If
you are playing NASCAR Fantasy Live, remember to make your picks by
3:15 p.m. EST today. Don't forget to
select your bonus
matchups.
Enjoy the race!
Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18
years. She launched NASCAR
Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol
pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to
arm fans with analysis
and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they
got so
smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond
Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International
Speedway. She is
also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.
When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.
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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18
years. She launched NASCAR
Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol
pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to
arm fans with analysis
and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they
got so
smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond
Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International
Speedway. She is
also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.