NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Palo Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway

 

The Daytona 500 was one to remember with its 52 lead changes and its double overtime finish, which actually made it the Daytona 530. It was the longest Daytona 500 in mileage and ties the 2010 Daytona 500 for the second-most lead changes in a single Daytona 500 since 1984. It will be especially memorable for race winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr., who snapped a 199-race winless streak to capture his third Cup Series win and secure his spot in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

This weekend will be bittersweet for Auto Club Speedway as it will be the last NASCAR Cup Series race on the 2-mile configuration. Auto Club is a track with lots of character that race teams enjoy tackling. Who will close the chapter on this storied track as winner on Sunday? Stay tuned!

This Week's Pick Strategy:
When I think of Fontana I think of drivers who love the challenge of rough and worn tracks that eat up tires. The five wide racing isn't for the timid, but is perfect for those drivers who love to race that high line up against the fence, and make bold moves.

Drivers with Top 5 Average Finishes in the Last 4 Races at Auto Club Speedway:  

1. Kyle Busch: 5.0

2. Joey Logano: 6.0

3. Denny Hamlin: 8.5

4. Aric Almirola: 8.8

5. Kyle Larson & Martin Truex Jr.: 9.0

Active Driver Top 10 Average Finishes in the Last 10 Races at Auto Club Speedway

	Driver	Races	Win	T5	T10	Led	AvSt	AvFn
1	Kyle Busch	9	3	6	7	413	6.8	6.3
2	Erik Jones	5	0	1	3	18	13.4	10.2
3	Joey Logano	10	0	6	7	71	10.3	10.6
4	Brad Keselowski	10	1	5	6	87	9.6	11.8
5	Austin Cindric	1	0	0	0	0	1	12.0
6	Chase Elliott	6	0	1	3	17	13.5	12.2
7	Kevin Harvick	10	0	4	6	178	8.5	12.5
8	Denny Hamlin	10	0	1	4	76	8.4	12.8
9	Martin Truex, Jr.	10	1	2	5	227	14.3	12.9
10	Kyle Larson	8	12	4	4	138	11.1	13.0

SOURCE: racing-reference.info

Recent Pole Winners:
2022 Austin Cindric

2020 Clint Bowyer

Recent Race Winners:
2022 Kyle Larson

2020 Alex Bowman

Active Race Winners at Auto Club Speedway
Driver           Wins     Seasons
Kyle Busch, 4, 2005, 2013, 2014, 2019
Alex Bowman, 1, 2020
Martin Truex Jr., 1, 2018
Kyle Larson, 1, 2017
Brad Keselowski, 1, 2015
Kevin Harvick, 1,  2011

SOURCE: NASCAR Media

 

The Likely Suspects: My Auto Club Speedway elite include Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, Austin Cindric, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Alex Bowman.

My 2 Cents:  My no-brainer pick this week is Kyle Busch. My next picks are Joey Logano, William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Erik Jones, and Brad Keselowski. I will complete my roster with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and A.J. Allmendinger.

My Final Four: Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Second-Look Driver: My sleeper pick this week is William Byron. Although this will only be William's fourth Cup Series start at Auto Club his consistency here is worth noting. From 2018-2020, the No. 24 car finished 15th three straight times. Last season, William was having his best outing yet when a flat tire in the final stage caused him to lose control and collide with Tyler Reddick's No. 8 car.

Points to Ponder:

• Kyle Busch is the only active Cup Series driver with multiple wins at Auto Club (2005, 2013, 2014, and 2019).
  
• Denny Hamlin leads the NASCAR Cup Series in Busch Pole Awards at Auto Club Speedway with three (2009, 2012, and 2013).
•  Nearly 59% (58.06%) of all wins at Auto Club Speedway come from the top 10 starting positions. The most prolific starting position on the grid is third, producing the most winners (four) of any starting position in the field (12.5%).
• Kevin Harvick leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in runner-up finishes with three. 
• Kyle Busch leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 5 finishes at Auto Club Speedway with 11, Top 10s with 16 as well as in laps led with 807 in 22 starts.
  

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your initial picks by 2:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 25, and your starters by 3:30 p.m. ET on race day, Sunday, February 26th.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 16 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.