NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: 4EVER 400 Presented by Mobil 1 at Homestead

 

The only Playoff driver not sweating it out this weekend in Homestead is Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson, who punched his ticket to the Championship 4 with his big win last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, the second-time in his career the 2021 series champion has earned a spot in the final postseason round (2021, 2023). It was Kyle's fourth win in 2023. And guess what? Kyle won this race last year. Now that would really make a statement. Stay tuned!

This week's pick strategy: I'm going to pack my roster with Fords and Chevys and sprinkle in one or two Toyotas.  This could be a big week for Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick in particular. I'll narrow down my roster after qualifying by picking as many drivers as possible in the Top 5.

Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last 5 Years):

By Race and Track

Kyle Busch - 5

Both with 4 - Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick

All with 3 - Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, and Brad Keselowski

All with 2 - Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, Ryan Newman, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Aric Almirola

Top 10 Driver Ratings at Homestead
4 YEARS (2019 - 2022 / 4 races)

Kyle Larson............................... 120.9
Martin Truex Jr.......................... 113.7
Denny Hamlin........................... 105.1
William Byron…..................…. 104.4
AJ Allmendinger…................... 101.8
Tyler Reddick............................ 115.5
Kyle Busch.................................  98.2
Kevin Harvick…..................…... 95.5
Ryan Blaney ............................... 94.1
Chase Elliott............................... 93.9

SOURCE: frcs.pro

 

Last Year's Pole Winner: William Byron

 

Last Year's Race Winner: Kyle Larson

The Likely Suspects:  Homestead go-tos are Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick,  and Chase Elliott. 

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick this week is Kyle Larson. My next picks are Martin Truex Jr., Ross Chastain, Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Austin Dillon. I will complete my roster with AJ Allmendinger and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 

My Final Four: Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and AJ Allmendinger.

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Austin Dillon. In his last five races here Austin has earned one Top 5 and three Top 10s including a fourth place finish in this race last year. His average finish is 8.4. Austin has been a Top 15 car at best this season, but this track really suits his driving style. He just might turn things around in a big way this weekend.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Seven of the 27 NASCAR Cup Series races (29.17%) at Homestead-Miami Speedway have been won from the front row: three from the first starting position and four from the second starting position. 
• The second starting position and the fifth starting position are the most prolific starting positions in the field,  producing more winners (four each) than any other starting positions at Homestead-Miami Speedway (16.67%).
  
• Joe Gibbs Racing leads the series in wins at Homestead-Miami with eight victories.
• Five different manufacturers have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami Speedway, led by Ford with eight victories; followed by Chevrolet with seven.
• Among active drivers, Denny Hamlin leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins at Homestead-Miami Speedway with three (2009, 2013, 2020).
• Kevin Harvick (2003, 2008, 2015) and Martin Truex Jr. (2006, 2018, 2019) lead the series in runner-up finishes with three each.
• Kevin Harvick leads the series in Top 5s at Homestead-Miami with 12, as well as Top 10s with 18. He also leads in average finishing position at Homestead-Miami Speedway at 7.318 in 22 starts.
• Kyle Larson leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in laps led at Homestead-Miami Speedway with 529 laps led of 2,346 laps completed (22.5%).

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your final picks by 2:30 p.m. ET on race day Sunday, October 22nd.

 

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 16 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.