NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Würth 400 at Dover

 

Last week, Toyota got their first win on a superspeedway when Tyler Reddick drove the 23XI Jordan Brand No. 45 to his first Talladega Speedway win. His sixth career Cup win was his first of the season. The race was one for the record books with 72 lead changes shared among 23 drivers — the most lead changes at Talladega since the debut of the Next Gen car in 2022. I wouldn't bet on that many lead swaps this week at Dover, but perhaps we'll see back-to-back Truex brothers wins again. Stay tuned!

 

This Week's Pick Strategy: I watched practice and qualifying live at Dover Motor Speedway and I liked what I saw from veteran drivers like Kyle Busch. Still, while Dover is a tough track to master, the young guns who are more aggressive in their driving style may just best the veterans this week. I'll mix up my roster, but I'll tip the scale slightly toward veterans.

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s 

Last 7 Races (2019 to 2023*):

Both with 5 - Martin Truex Jr. and Alex Bowman.

All with 4 - Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano.

Last Year's Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr.

The Likely Suspects: My Dover elites include Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, William Byron, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin.

My 2 Cents: This week's no-brainer pick is Kyle Larson. My next picks are Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, Ty Gibbs, and Brad Keselowski. I will complete my roster with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Chase Briscoe.

My Final Four: Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe.

Second-look driver: This week's sleeper pick is Ty Gibbs. Dover Motor Speedway is a high commitment track. You need to have confidence in your car and you have to be all in when battling those high banks. Ty finished 13th last year in this race starting from 24th on the grid. He's definitely a driver who attacks a track, but can he beat the Monster Mile? Stay tuned.

Points to Ponder:

• Jimmie Johnson leads the NASCAR Cup Series in multiple wins at Dover Motor Speedway with 11 victories (2002 sweep, 2005 Playoffs, 2009 sweep, 2010 Playoffs, Spring of 2012, 2013 Playoffs, Spring of 2014, Spring of 2015 and Spring of 2017). He is followed by Martin Truex Jr.  with four wins (2007, 2016, 2019, 2023), and Kyle Busch with three win (2008, 2010, 2017); and Chase Elliott with two (2022, 2018.)
• The second-place starting position is the most prolific starting position in the field, producing more winners (20) than any other starting position at Dover International Speedway – the most recent was Denny Hamlin’s win on August 22, 2020.
• Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins at Dover in the NASCAR Cup Series with 22 victories among seven drivers.
• Kyle Busch leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in runner-up finishes at Dover with four. 
• Jimmie Johnson leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 5s at Dover with 27. 
• Kyle Larson (15 starts) leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at Dover with an 8.6.
• Jimmie Johnson leads the NASCAR Cup Series in laps led at Dover with 3,113 laps led in 38 starts.

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your final picks by 2 p.m. ET on race day Sunday, April 27th.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 17 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.

When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.