NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol

 

 

RFK Racing's Chris Buescher played spoiler last week by winning the Go Bowling at The Glen in overtime, beating second-place Shane Van Gisbergen by .979 of a second. It was Buescher's first road course win, his sixth career NASCAR Cup Series victory, his first win of the season, and his first at Watkins Glen. Numerous Playoff drivers had less than stellar performances at the Glen, including Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., and Brad Keselowski.

Saturday's night race at Bristol is a cutoff race that will eliminate four drivers, sending the top 12 in the Playoff standings to the next round, which starts at Kansas Speedway on September 29th. Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and Harrison Burton are currently in 13th through 16. Hamlin has a lot of game at Bristol, but it wouldn't be surprising to have a non-Playoff driver win here.

Hmm. Buescher is decent at Bristol with one win, three Top 5s and five Top 10s. Layne Riggs, winning driver in the Craftsman Truck Series race at Bristol, played spoiler for the second consecutive race. Can Buescher do it again Saturday night? Stay tuned.

This Week's Pick Strategy: You can't go wrong doing a mix of Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports drivers this week. Both racing organizations are neck and neck in earning poles and victories at Bristol. Teams will be racing the same tire as in the spring race and applying resin to the track, so I'll be placing more emphasis on my tried-and-true tire management masters like Martin Truex Jr., Alex Bowman, Josh Berry, and Denny Hamlin.

I'll also place additional emphasis on drivers who qualify within the first five spots. When you click off 15-second lap times here it's easy to get lapped and you don't want to spend time racing in the back of the pack where potential cautions lurk at every turn.

Drivers with Most Top 10s
By Race (5 races 2019-2023):
All with 4 - Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott

All with 3 - Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and William Byron

By Track (7 races 2019-2023):
Denny Hamlin - 5
All with 4 - Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and William Byron
All with 3 - Chris Buescher, Christopher Bell, Erik Jones, and Ryan Blaney

 

Last Year's Pole Winner: Aric Almirola

Last Year's Race Winner: Chris Buescher

The Likely Suspects:  Look for these drivers to run well on raceday: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Brad Keselowki, Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe, and Chris Buescher.

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick is a tie between Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. My next picks are Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, and Chris Buescher. I will complete my roster with Chase Briscoe and Todd Gilliland.

My Final Four: Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Briscoe

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Chase Briscoe. Saturday night’s race will be Briscoe’s fifth career NASCAR Cup Series start at Bristol. In his five starts he has earned two Top 15 finishes, with his best effort being 13th–a result earned twice, in his first Cup Series start at Bristol in September 2021 and in his most recent start here this past spring.

Briscoe currently sits 11th in the Cup Series Playoffs just one spot above the cutline and has had a respectable run so far. Last week, he finished sixth place at Watkins Glen. Despite his limited NASCAR Cup Series experience at Bristol, Briscoe has always felt comfortable racing here as it reminds him of two other high-banked tracks from his early racing career in Indiana –Salem Speedway and Winchester Speedway.

In his NASCAR Xfinity Series career from 2018 through 2020, Bristol was one of Briscoe’s best tracks. He made six Xfinity Series starts there and never finished worse than fourth. His Bristol Xfinity Series accolades include a win at the 2020 Food City 300 and two back-to-back runner-up finishes in August 2019 and June 2020. Briscoe may just continue to exceed Playoff expectations with a win on Saturday under the lights. 

 

Points to Ponder:

• The race winner at Bristol Motor Speedway has started from the pole, or first starting position, 27 times (22.13%) - the most productive starting position in the field. 
• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Bristol Motor Speedway with four (2013, 2014, 2015, 2019). 
• Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing lead the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Bristol Motor Speedway with 12 poles each. 
  
• Joe Gibbs Racing leads all active NASCAR Cup Series organizations in wins at Bristol Motor Speedway with 15 victories, followed by Team Penske with 13, Hendrick Motorsports and RFK Racing with 12 each. 
• Kyle Busch leads the NASCAR Cup Series among active drivers in wins at Bristol with eight in 35 starts (Spring 2007, 2009 sweep, Fall 2010, Spring 2011, Fall 2017, Spring 2018, Spring 2019). Kyle also leads active drivers in runner-up finishes at Bristol with four, in Top 5 finishes with 14, in Top 10s with 19, and in laps led with 2,598. 
• Kyle Larson leads the Cup Series among active drivers in average finishing position at Bristol with a 11.6 in 16 starts.
• Five drivers (Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin) finished inside the Top 10 in all three races at Bristol in the Next Gen car. Kyle Larson is the only driver of the five to finish in the Top 5 in all three.

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your initial picks by Friday, September 20th by 4:05 p.m. ET and your final picks by 7:30 p.m. ET on race day Saturday, September 21st.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 17 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.

When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.