NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Daytona 500 season opener

Here we are back to the beginning of another racing season. There's almost too many stories to follow. I'm not sure if I'm more curious if drivers like Kyle Busch and Erik Jones will find their mojo this year or if those drivers returning to the Cup Series full-time like AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, Ty Dillon, and Cody Ware will give the field a run for their money. And of course, our two rookie drivers, Shane van Gisbergen and Riley Herbst, will no doubt give us something to talk about.

For our biggest race of the season, I think the Toyotas are going to pick up where they left off at The Duels. Their speed is definitely greatly improved from past years and there's more of them which will help with drafting and coordinating green flag pit stops. But will they have anything for those Fords and Chevys? Stay tuned.

This week's pick strategy: 

I sure liked what I saw in practice on Friday with Chase Elliott, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and Kyle Larson drafting together. I'm not sure if I gleaned anything from practice today except that Joey Logano may be willing to draft with a Toyota or Chevy if the scenario is in his best interest.

With Daytona, I try to focus on possible drafting partners and not waste a pick on a super popular driver unless of course he is an elite pusher or any of the Team Penske drivers. My plan is to go heavy on the Fords, pick one or two Chevys, and the fastest Toyota. I expect fuel strategy to come into play, so I will be looking at two of the best fuel management drivers in the business -- Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski.

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s in the Last Five Years:
By Race 
Both with 3 - Ryan Blaney and Corey LaJoie

All with 2 - Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Michael McDowell, Ross Chastain, AJ Allmendinger, and Chase Briscoe

By Track
Chris Buescher - 6
All with 5: Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Bubba Wallace

All with 4: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Corey LaJoie
 

Last Year's Race Winner: William Byron

The Likely Suspects: My go-to Daytona elites are Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace, Christopher Bell, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, William Byron, Joey Logano, Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, Corey LaJoie, Chase Elliott, and Kyle Busch.

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick is Bubba Wallace. My next picks are Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, Ryan Blaney, and Joey Logano. I'll round out my roster with Corey LaJoie and John Hunter Nemechek.

My Fabulous 5 (Drivers most likely to finish in the Top 5): Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Brad Keselowski, and Austin Cindric.

NASCAR Fantasy Live Line Up: 

Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, Alex Bowman, John Hunter Nemechek, and Brad Keselowski. In the garage: Joey Logano

        Featured Match Ups: Logano over Hamlin, Blaney over Elliott, Busch over Larson,
        and Wallace over Byron

 
Second-Look Driver: This week my sleeper pick is John Hunter Nemechek. John Hunter has the best average finish among active Cup Series drivers with more than one start (9.0) in the DAYTONA 500. He may not have had the speed that teammate Erik Jones had in the second Duel, but over the past two starts here he has been hovering around the Top 10. John Hunter will be starting in Row 9 tomorrow.

 

In 2020, when he was with Front Row Motorsports he finished 11th, and in his debut year at Legacy Motor Club, he finished 7th. The Toyota teams put a lot of work in the off season to catch up with the speeds the Fords have at Daytona. I wouldn't be surprised if we'll see that effort pay off for John Hunter on race day.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Eight of the 43 NASCAR Cup Series DAYTONA 500 winners are active this weekend, led by Denny Hamlin with three wins (2016, 2019, 2020), followed by Jimmie Johnson with two, and William Byron, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell, Austin Dillon, and Joey Logano with one win each.
• Petty Enterprises and Hendrick Motorsports are tied with nine wins in the NASCAR Cup Series in DAYTONA 500. Wood Brother Racing has the second most victories at the Daytona 500 with five.
  
• Nine different manufacturers have won the DAYTONA 500, led by Chevrolet with 26 victories; followed by Ford (17). 
  
• The pole position in the Daytona 500 field has produced more winners (nine) than any other position (13.64%). 
• Bubba Wallace (2018, 2022), and Ryan Blaney (2017, 2020) lead all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in runner-up finishes in the DAYTONA 500 with two each.
• Denny Hamlin lead all active drivers in DAYTONA 500 Top 5 finishes with eight.
• Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson lead all active drivers in DAYTONA 500 Top 10 finishes with eight each.
  
• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in laps led in the DAYTONA 500 with 490 laps led in 19 starts – and he is ranked fifth on the all-time lap leaders list of the race.
• John Hunter Nemechek has the best average finish among active drivers with more than one start (9.0); he has made two appearances in the DAYTONA 500.
  

If you are playing NASCAR Fantasy Live, remember that tomorrow's race has been moved up to a 1:30 p.m. ET start time. Make your picks at least 5 minutes before start time, and don't forget to select your bonus matchups. Good luck with your fantasy team!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.