NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Shriner's Children 500

 

 

It was another "almost" NASCAR Cup race win for Kyle Busch at COTA last week. He led six times for 42 laps, the most for the race, but it's that last one that counts. Ultimately, he used up his stuff and just couldn't hold off the charging No. 20 of Christopher Bell. After some hard, but clean racing, the No. 20 took the checkered flag.

 

With the win, Christopher Bell became the third driver in NASCAR history to finish 31st or worse in the season-opening race, and then win the next two events (Jimmie Johnson – 2010, Kevin Harvick – 2018). The last driver in the Cup Series with back-to-back wins was Kevin Harvick. It was Christopher's first back-to-back win in his Cup Series career, and the fourth straight year he had earned more than one win in a season. And guess what? Christopher Bell won this race last year.

 

Can the No. 20 team make a record-breaking statement to the rest of the field tomorrow at Phoenix? Stay tuned.

This Week's Pick Strategy: This week's race will feature an option tire very similar to what we had at Richmond Raceway last August. I don't think it's going to make a huge difference in the race's outcome, but when I'm making final picks, I will favor tire management elites like Josh Berry or Denny Hamlin if they look good off the truck. 

 

I think the Chevys and the Fords are going to be strong this week, but I will check out practice and qualifying to see if the JGR Toyotas have speed. The No. 19 team who just got its L2-level penalty overturned may just have some renewed energy and Denny Hamlin needs to have a good race as does Ty Gibbs. And 23XI's Tyler Reddick is pretty stout at Phoenix Raceway.

Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last 5 Years):
By Race
Ryan Blaney - 4 

All with 3 - Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Busch

 
By Track
Ryan Blaney - 9
Both with 7 - Kyle Larson and William Byron

Both with 6 - Joey Logano and Christopher Bell

All with 5 - Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch 

All with 4 - Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher

Recent Pole Winners:
2024 Denny Hamlin

2023 Kyle Larson

2022 Ryan Blaney

Last Year's Race Winner: Christopher Bell

The Likely Suspects: My Phoenix go-tos include Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski.

 

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick this week is Ryan Blaney. My next picks are Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell, William Byron, and Kyle Larson. I will complete my roster with Chase Briscoe and Kyle Busch.  

My Fabulous 5 (Drivers most likely to finish in the Top 5): Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick

NASCAR Fantasy Live Line Up:  Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, and Ross Chastain. And Noah Gragson in the garage.

        Featured Match Ups:  Blaney over Logano, Elliot over Chastain, Larson over Bell, 

        and Busch over Hamlin

Second-Look Driver: This week's sleeper pick is Michael McDowell. Michael's move to Spire Motorsports has gotten off to a great start. Michael and the No. 71 team, led by crew chief Travis Peterson, have earned the fifth best average finish in 2025 (11.7). Michael is the only Cup driver to finish Top 15 in each race this season.

Michael is known as a great road course driver, having earned his two Cup Series wins at the 2021 season-opening Daytona 500 and at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course in August 2023. But don't count out the Glendale, Arizona, native at his home track. With momentum on his side and decent finishes in the last two spring races here (8th in 2024 and 13th in 2023), you just may want to put him on your fantasy roster this week.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Joey Logano leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in wins at Phoenix Raceway with four (2016, 2020, 2022, 2024). 
• The first and third starting positions are the two most proficient starting positions, producing more winners (eight each) than any other positions on the starting grid.
• 11 of the 57 (21.05%) NASCAR Cup Series races at Phoenix Raceway have been won from the front row: eight from the pole and four from the second starting position.
  
• Nine of the 31 Phoenix Raceway Cup Series winners are active this weekend: Joey Logano has four wins, Kyle Busch has three wins, and Denny Hamlin has two. Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott, each have one victory. 
• Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers at Phoenix Raceway with four second-place finishes each. 
• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 5 finishes at Phoenix Raceway with 16. 
• Kyle Busch leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 10s with 26, and is also the lap leader at Phoenix in laps led at Phoenix Raceway with 1,190 laps led out of 11,971 laps completed (10%).
• Ryan Blaney (18 starts) leads all active Cup drivers in average finishing position at Phoenix with a 10.444. 
  

If you are playing NASCAR Fantasy Live, remember to make your picks by 3:25 p.m. EST on race day on Sunday, March 9th. Don't forget to select your bonus matchups. (Don't forget to set your clocks ahead one hour for Daylight Saving Time [in most places]!)

 

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.