NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Toyota/Save Mart 350

 

Shane van Gisbergen had quite a weekend in the Windy City, winning both the Xfinity Series and Cup Series races from the pole. To say that his racing craft on road and street courses is impressive is a mammoth understatement. Boy was it fun to watch. 

 

For the second consecutive weekend, Shane earned the pole position in both Xfinity and Cup. He had to settle for second this afternoon in the Xfinity race as Connor Zilsch won the hard-fought battle in Sonoma and a bit of redemption for the Chicago Street Course. As for the Cup race this weekend, William Byron and Chase Briscoe looked strong in practice and qualifying. If you're playing daily games or sports betting, this weekend could get interesting. Good luck picking a winner!

This Week's Pick Strategy: Umm. We could be re-racking last week this week at Sonoma. It could very well be SVG against the field again this week. Shane won the last two road course races from the pole position. The record is three by Jeff Gordon between 1998 and 1999.

I'm not counting out those Hendrick Motorsports drivers though who have won five of the last 10 road course races with three different drivers winning: William Byron and Kyle Larson (twice) and Alex Bowman (once). So my roster will go heavy with road course aces, HMS drivers and a couple of drivers who check all the boxes at Sonoma like Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher.

 

Last Year's Race Winner: Kyle Larson

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last 5 Years):

By Race and Track
All with 4 - Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Ross Chastain.
All with 3 - Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, and Michael McDowell.

 

Top 12 Sonoma Driver Averages Since February 2022

Chris Buescher	3.0
Michael McDowell	4.0
Chase Elliott	5.7
Ross Chastain	7.3
Kyle Larson	8.0
AJ Allmendinger	10.3
Daniel Suarez	12.3
Brad Keselowski	13.0
Joey Logano	13.7
Kyle Busch	14.7
Ryan Blaney	14.7
Christopher Bell	15.0

SOURCE: DriverAverages.com

Drivers with Most Top 10s on Road Courses

(2022-2025, 17 races):

Chris Buescher - 14

Tyler Reddick - 12

Both with 12 - Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell
A.J. Allmendinger - 10

Both with 9 -  Michael McDowell and Ross Chastain

William Byron - 8
Both with 7 - Alex Bowman and Austin Cindric

All with 6 - Kyle Larson,  Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano

* Includes Charlotte Road Course, Circuit of the Americas, Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, Mexico City, Road America, Sonoma Raceway, and Watkins Glen International
SOURCE: FRSC.pro

 

The Likely Suspects: My Sonoma elite drivers include Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, Ryan Blaney, and Daniel Suarez.

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick this week is Shane van Gisbergen. My next picks are William Byron, Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, and Chris Buescher. I will complete my roster with Ross Chastain and Ty Gibbs.

 

My Fabulous 5 (Drivers most likely to finish in the Top 5):
Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, and Ross Chastain.

NASCAR Fantasy Live Line Up: 

Shane van Gisbergen, Michael McDowell, AJ Allmendinger, William Byron, and Chris Buescher. In the garage: Tyler Reddick.

        Featured Match Ups: Gibbs over Smith, Reddick over Preece, Ty Dillon over Bowman, and Nemechek over Jones.

 

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Chris Buescher. Chris has run well at Sonoma, finishing in the Top 5 in the last three Sonoma races, the longest active streak. In the last three Sonoma races, Chris Buescher finished second, fourth and third. I'm keeping my eye on him this week.

Points to Ponder:

• Kyle Larson leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Sonoma Raceway with four (2017, 2018, 2019, 2022). The other three drivers who earned Cup Series poles here are Joey Logano (2024 and 2011), AJ Allmendinger (2015), and Denny Hamlin (2023).
• Four NASCAR Cup Series active Sonoma winners are entered this weekend: Martin Truex Jr (3); Kyle Busch (2); Kevin Harvick (1); and Kurt Busch (1). 
•  William Byron leads all active drivers in road course poles in the NASCAR Cup Series with five (Charlotte ROVAL 2019, Road America 2021, Indianapolis R.C. 2021, COTA 2023 and 2024).
•  Kyle Larson has the second-most road course poles among active drivers in the series with four, all at Sonoma Raceway (2017, 2018, 2019, 2022).
• Kyle Busch (2008, 2015) and Kyle Larson (2021, 2024) lead all active drivers in wins at Sonoma Raceway in the NASCAR Cup Series with two victories each. 
• The pole or first starting position is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more wins (six) than any other starting position at Sonoma Raceway.    
• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers in the Cup Series in runner-up finishes at Sonoma Raceway with two (2019, 2023) as well as Top 5s with seven and Top 10s with nine.
• Denny Hamlin leads all active Cup Series drivers in laps led at Sonoma Raceway (eighth-most all-time) with 135 laps led out of 1,791 laps completed (8%) in 18 Sonoma Raceway starts.
• Chase Elliott leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in average finish at Sonoma with a 12.143 in seven starts.  
  

If you are playing NASCAR Fantasy Live, remember to make your picks by 3:25 p.m. EST on race day, Sunday, July 13th. Don't forget to select your bonus matchups.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.