NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Food City 500 at Bristol

It sure was fun seeing Chase Elliott get his 22nd career NASCAR Cup win at Martinsville. Chase's second victory at the Paper Cup gave Hendrick Motorsports first win of the season. 

While Chase is pretty decent at Bristol, I think a driver with dirt racing chops is much more likely to win this week. Stay tuned. 

This Week's Pick Strategy: Think Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports this week. These organizations have Bristol Motor Speedway dialed in for both poles and wins. I will be sticking with traditional Bristol elites and add in one or two aggressive drivers who run well here. The weather should be pretty warm on race day so when I do my final picks, I will favor those drivers who don't mind driving on a slick track.

Remember that Alex Bowman is back this week and he checks off the pole winner box with last spring's pole. Alex has scored one Top 5 and three Top 10s at the track since 2024, earning him a 93.1 driver average rating.

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s 

By Track In Gen 7 Car (6 races 2022-2025):
Christopher Bell - 6
Both with 5- Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin 
Both with 4 - Ty Gibbs and Chase Elliott 
All with 3 - Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Ross Chastain

Drivers with Most Top 5s 

By Track In Gen 7 Car (6 races 2022-2025):

Kyle Larson - 5

Both with 4 -  Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin
All with 2 - Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, and Chase Elliott

Last Year's Pole Winner: Alex Bowman

 

Last Year's Race Winner: Kyle Larson

The Likely Suspects:  Look for these drivers to run well on race day: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Brad Keselowski, William Byron, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman, and Kyle Busch.

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick is Ty Gibbs. Bristol is one of Ty's best tracks and he has been running well this season. My next choices are Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, and Alex Bowman. I will complete my roster with Carson Hocevar and AJ Allmendinger.

My Final Four: Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, and Carson Hocevar.

 

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Ty Gibbs. Ty is currently sixth in the NASCAR Cup Series driver's standings, and sits poised to get his first Cup Series win. In the last six races here, Gibbs has earned four Top fives and five Top 10s, and has led 18 laps for an average finish of 10.0. Last spring, Gibbs finished third and scored stage points. Last fall, Gibbs finished 10th, scored stage points, and lead 201 laps.  

 

Points to Ponder:

• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Bristol Motor Speedway with four (2013, 2014, 2015, 2019). Hamlin also leads active drivers in Top 10 finishes at Bristol with 20.
•  Hendrick Motorsports leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Bristol Motor Speedway with 14 poles among six drivers, including Chase Elliott (2019), Alex Bowman (2024, 2025), followed by Joe Gibbs Racing with 12 poles among seven drivers.The most recent was Christopher Bell in 2023.
• More than half of the NASCAR Cup Series winners at Bristol Motor Speedway have started in the top five (74 wins, 58.3%). The starting row has reaped the most wins.  
•  Joe Gibbs Racing leads all active NASCAR Cup Series organizations in wins at Bristol Motor Speedway with 16 victories; followed by Hendrick Motorsports with 14, Team Penske with 13, and RFK Racing with 12.
• Kyle Busch leads the NASCAR Cup Series among active drivers in wins at Bristol with eight in 38 starts (Spring 2007, 2009 sweep, Fall 2010, Spring 2011, Fall 2017, Spring 2018, Spring 2019). Busch also leads active drivers in runner-up finishes at Bristol with four, in Top 5 finishes with 14, and in laps led with 2,598. 
• Christopher Bell leads the series among active drivers in average finishing position at Bristol with a 10.8 in nine starts.

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your final picks by 3 p.m. ET on race day, Sunday, April 12th.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.