NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Can Austin Dillon do the three-peat at Richmond?

 

Last week in Iowa, while all eyes were on Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs thumbed his nose at all the naysayers who have doubted and criticized him over the years, and earned his second Cup Series win. But that's not all. Gibbs quietly moved up two spots in the driver standings to second place: 103 points behind Denny Hamlin. Ryan Blaney dropped to third, and remarkably, Tyler Reddick, the driver who just a couple months ago seemed to be the heir apparent to the regular season championship, dropped to fourth after a Lap 4 crash ended his day.

 

As we roll into Richmond, all eyes are on Richmond elite driver Denny Hamlin, and also Austin Dillon, who has the opportunity to literally be a triple threat, as he will be seeking his third consecutive win at Richmond Raceway. If he can pull that off, Dillon will be breathing some pretty rare air. Bobby Allison was the most recent driver to earn the distinction, over 40 years ago in 1983.  

This Week's Pick Strategy: Richmond is all about tire management. My roster will be a mix of tire management masters and short-track elites. I will then mix in drivers who have a history of running well here. Next, I will cross-reference with drivers who have something to prove, i.e. drivers who are still looking for a ride in 2027.

 

Active Drivers with Most Top 10s 

2022-2025 (7 Races)

Denny Hamlin - 6  
All with 5 - Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell

Both with 4 - Brad Keselowski and Austin Dillon

Active Drivers with Most Top 5s 
Denny Hamlin - 5
Both with 4 - Joey Logano and Kyle Larson

Last Year's Pole Winner: Ryan Preece

 

Last Year's Race Winner: Austin Dillon

 

The Likely Suspects: My Richmond Raceway elites include Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Josh Berry, and Chase Elliott.

 

My 2 Cents:  My no-brainer pick this week is Denny Hamlin. My next picks are Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Josh Berry, and Brad Keselowski. I'll complete my team with Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez.

My Final Four: Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, and Carson Hocevar.

Second-Look Driver:  This week's second-look driver is Josh Berry. Richmond Raceway is reminiscent of the short tracks where Josh spent many Saturday nights racing in the past. His short-track prowess and tire management acumen make Josh a great sleeper pick. He has two Top 10 finishes at Richmond, including a runner-up in April 2023, earning him an average finish of 8.750, the fourth-best among active drivers. Josh goes into Richmond with momentum on his side. His worst Richmond finish is 14th in four starts. He has good mojo coming into Richmond from his fourth-place finish at Iowa. Can he keep his string of back-to-back Top 10 finishes going? Stay tuned.

Points to Ponder:

• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series pole winners at Richmond Raceway with four poles (2006, 2008, 2016, 2024). Denny also leads all active Cup drivers in wins at Richmond Raceway with five victories (2009, 2010, 2016, 2022, 2024). He also leads all active drivers in the Cup Series in runner-up finishes at Richmond with six second-place finishes, in Top 5 finishes at Richmond with 20 top fives, and in Top 10s at Richmond Raceway with 25 Top 10s. Denny also leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at Richmond Raceway with an 8.189, and leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in laps led at Richmond Raceway with 2,367 laps led in 37 starts.
• Austin Dillon is the most recent driver to win consecutive NASCAR Cup Series races at Richmond Raceway (2024-2025).
  
• The first starting position is the most proficient starting position in the NASCAR Cup Series field, producing more winners than any other starting position at Richmond Raceway with 24 victories (17.52%).
•  Only two active drivers have been able to win from the pole or first starting position at Richmond Raceway in the Cup Series: Brad Keselowski (2014) and Denny Hamlin (2016).
• Joe Gibbs Racing leads the NASCAR Cup Series in victories at Richmond Raceway with 19, followed by Petty Enterprises with the second-most NASCAR Cup Series wins at Richmond Raceway (15 victories).

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your initial picks by 3:30 p.m. ET on Friday, August 14th, and your final picks by 7 pm ET on Saturday, August 15th. I am covering race weekend, so check back throughout the weekend for stories and photos. 

 

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or volunteering in or around Queen Anne's County, on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.