NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Southern 500 Chase Opener

Last weekend’s racing at Daytona was all about first-time winners and exciting overtime victories. And it didn’t hurt if your first name was Ryan. On Friday, veteran owner-driver Ryan Sieg bested Austin Hill in the Winn-Dixie 250 Powered by Coca-Cola to earn his first career win in his 424th NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts Series start.
 

On Saturday night, Ryan Preece won his first Cup Series career points-paying race, earning the No. 60 team the last spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Chase. Ironically, despite the new post-season rule change, Preece’s performance at the Coke Zero Sugar 400 provided a dramatic “win and you’re in” moment. The victory was the first NASCAR Cup Series points-paying win for RFK Racing since 2024, and the 144th Cup Series win for Jack Roush overall.
 

After two scary crashes at Daytona—last year and in 2023—Preece finally made the celebratory trip to Victory Lane instead of the in-field care center. As we roll into Darlington with the 16-team Chase field set, we’ll get to see who can seize the moment and conquer “The Lady in Black.” Will it be a Chase team or field spoiler? Stay tuned.

 

This Week's Pick Strategy: The post season adds another nuance to fantasy picks. I try to take it race to race only moderately weighing Chase drivers more than the field. This week I will make my initial picks based on drivers who excel at low-grip tracks. Darlington is notorious for being difficult to master. A mistake can leave you mired in the back of the field, but if you have a fast car and the skill to search for and find that perfect line, you can make to the front. After qualifying, I will cross-reference speed with proven performance here to finalize my roster. 

Active Cup Series Drivers with Most Top 10s
By Race (Includes 4 races - 2022-2025)  

Tyler Reddick - 4 

All with 3 - Denny Hamlin, Erik Jones, Bubba Wallace, and Chris Buescher 

Active Drivers with Most Top 10s
By Track (Includes 9 races - 2022-2026)  

Tyler Reddick - 7
All with 6 - William Byron and Chris Buescher

All with 5 - Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Bubba Wallace
All with 4 - Christopher Bell, Erik Jones, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney

Active Cup Series Drivers with Most Top 3s
By Race (Includes 4 races - 2022-2025)  

Tyler Reddick - 3 
Both with 2 - Chase Briscoe and Erik Jones

 

Active Cup Series Drivers with Most Top 3s

By Track (Includes 9 races - 2022-2026)  

Tyler Reddick - 5
All with 2 - William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Erik Jones
  

Last Year's Pole Winner:  Denny Hamlin

 

Last Year's Race Winner:  Chase Briscoe

 

The Likely Suspects: My Darlington elites include Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Larson, and Joey Logano.

 

My 2 Cents: This week's no-brainer pick is Erik Jones. My next picks are Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick. I will round out my roster with Zane Smith and Corey Heim.
 

My Final Four: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Erik Jones, and Corey Heim.

Second-Look Driver:  This week's second-look driver is Chris Buescher. Chris comes into the Chase seeded 10th and he is still looking for his first win of the season. One couldn't come at a better time than the first race of the Chase. Plus, he is coming up on the second anniversary of his last victory (September 15, 2024) at Watkins Glen. Chris has finished Top 10 in six of the last seven races at Darlington including the last four, tying with him Tyler Reddick for the longest active streak here. Overall, he has earned one Top 5 and eight Top 10s at Darlington for an average finish of 15.222, 12th-best among active Cup Series drivers.

 

RFK Racing is coming off a victory high from Ryan Preece's performance last week. Buescher finished last after an awkward push from Kyle Larson sent him spinning through the grass in Stage 1. This would be a great time for the No. 17 team to show the field that they've come to win.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Tyler Reddick (2024, 2026), Denny Hamlin (2018, 2025), Joey Logano (2022 sweep) and William Byron (2019, 2025) lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Darlington Raceway with two each. 
• Ford leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Darlington Raceway with 45, followed by Chevrolet (23).
• Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (2010, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2025) leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in wins at Darlington with five.
• The front-row starting positions combined have produced 32.3% of the race winners at Darlington Raceway with 42 wins coming from the two spots.
• This weekend eight of the 47 organizations that have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington Raceway will be active, led by Hendrick Motorsports. Joe Gibbs Racing has the second-most wins with 12.
• Eight of the 56 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington race winners are active this weekend: Denny Hamlin with five, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, and Chase Briscoe with two each, and Tyler Reddick, Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Joey Logano each have one win here. 
• A total of 11 different manufacturers have won in the series at Darlington, led by Chevrolet with 44 victories, followed by Ford with 34.
• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in second-place finishes at Darlington with four, in Top 10s with 20, and in Top 5 finishes with 14. Hamlin also leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at Darlington with a 8.0 in 28 starts.
• Kyle Larson leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in laps led with 1,070 laps led in 17 starts.

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your initial picks by 4 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5th, and your final picks by 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 6th. 

 

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or volunteering in or around Queen Anne's County, on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.