NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Rolling the Chase Dice in Las Vegas

  

Just a few weeks ago the buzz was all about how the garage should be worried that the No. 22 car was getting hot at just the right time. Then Kyle Larson kicks his 51-race winless streak to the curb three weeks ago, and takes two out of the last three races. His win last week at Kansas was a commanding one. 

He not only led 235 laps of the 267 lap race, but for the first time since this year's new points system was created, the No. 5 team drove a perfect race scoring all the possible points available (76). The victory at Kansas was Kyle's 34th in the Cup Series, his fourth at Kansas, and his second this season. Hmm. Las Vegas is one of Kyle's three best tracks. Can he widen his Chase lead this week? 

 

This Week's Pick Strategy:
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a low grip track that eats up tires. It tends to favor drivers who know how to manage tires and who are constantly searching for the best lines to pick up speed. I'm packing my roster with my favorite Vegas elites who have dirt track experience. I will then cross reference for drivers who have pole potential and use practice and qualifying to narrow down my picks.  

 

Active NASCAR Cup Series Drivers with the Most Top 10s:

By Race 2022-2025 (4 Races)

Denny Hamlin - 4 

All with 3 - Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain

By Track  2022-2026 (8 Races)
All with 6 - Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Denny Hamlin
Christopher Bell - 5
All with 4 - Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and Alex Bowman

 

Active NASCAR Cup Series Drivers with the Most Top 5s:
By Race 2022-2025 (4 Races)

Christopher Bell - 3
All with 2 - Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ross Chastain, and Chase Briscoe

 

By Track  2022-2026 (8 Races)

Christopher Bell - 5
All with 4 - Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Ross Chastain    

 

Last Year's Pole Winner: Denny Hamlin

Last Year's Race Winner: Denny Hamlin

 

The Likely Suspects:  My Las Vegas elite drivers include Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano  Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Blaney.

 

My 2 Cents:  My no-brainer pick is a tie between Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. My next picks are Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, and Alex Bowman. I will round out my roster with Daniel Suarez and AL Allmendinger.

My Final Four: Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez.

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Ross Chastain. While the Alva, Florida, native hasn't lit the world on fire this season, Ross has picked up the pace and has had decent finishes for the past few weeks since his fifth-place finish at Gateway. In the seven races at Vegas since 2023, the No.1 car has earned three Top 5s and four Top 10s for an average finish of 10.4, placing him fifth among active NASCAR Cup Series drivers. Las Vegas is Ross' 4th best track on the circuit. Could he be smashing a watermelon in Victory Lane in Sin City? Stay tuned.

 

Points to Ponder:

• A total of 10 different organizations have won a pole in the NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, led by Joe Gibbs Racing with 10.
• Christopher Bell (2022, 2023, 2024, 2026) leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with four, followed by Joey Logano with three (2024, 2023, 2014).
• In total, five different manufacturers have won a pole at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the NASCAR Cup Series, led by Ford with 13, followed by Toyota (eight), and Chevrolet (six.)
• The second starting position is the most proficient starting position in the field producing more winners (eight) than any other starting position at Las Vegas Motor Speedway – with a winning percentage of 27%. 
• Hendrick Motorsports leads the NASCAR Cup Series in wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 10, followed by Team Penske and RFK Racing tied with seven, and Joe Gibbs Racing with six.
• Four manufacturers have visited Victory Lane in the NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, led by Ford with 16 victories, Chevrolet with 13, and Toyota with seven.
• Team Penske leads the NASCAR Cup Series postseason race wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with three (2018, 2022, 2024). 
• Team Penske crew chief Paul Wolfe leads all NASCAR Cup Series crew chiefs in postseason wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with three (with Brad Keselowski in 2018 and Joey Logano in 2022, 2024).
• Kyle Larson (2017, 2018, 2022, 2023, 2025) leads the NASCAR Cup Series in runner-up finishes at Las Vegas with five second-place finishes.
• Kyle Busch led the NASCAR Cup Series in Top-5 finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 12.
•  Brad Kesleowski and Kyle Larson lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 5 finishes at Las Vegas with nine each. 
• Denny Hamlin leads active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in top-10 finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 16 top 10s.
• Kyle Larson leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with an average finish of 8.9 in 20 starts. Kyle also leads the NASCAR Cup Series in laps led at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with 881 laps led.

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your initial picks by Saturday, October 3rd at 4:30 p.m. ET  and your final picks by 5:30 p.m. ET on race day, Sunday, October 4th.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.