NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Drydene 400 at Dover

 

Dare I say it? I think this could be Kevin Harvick's season break-out race. Kevin, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott, who combined to win 21 of the 36 races (58.3%) last season are all still looking for their first trip to Victory Lane in 2021. And all three have won at Dover International Speedway; including last season when Denny Hamlin (Race 1) and Kevin Harvick (Race 2) each won. Elliott grabbed his lone victory at the Monster Mile back in 2018. The plot thickens.

This Week's Pick Strategy:
Think wheelmen who are saavy at searching for the preferred line and who aren't afraid of driving close to the fence. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt if you hail from the Hendrick Motorsports camp.

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s 

Last 6 Races (2018 to 2020):

Kevin Harvick - 6
Martin Truex Jr.- 5

All with 4 - Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Kyle Busch

Top 12 Dover Driver Ratings

Kyle Busch............................... 103.5

Kyle Larson............................... 103.3

Martin Truex Jr.......................... 101.2

Kevin Harvick..............................98.6

Brad Keselowski......................... 93.2

Chase Elliott............................... 91.5

Cole Custer................................ 89.2

Denny Hamlin............................88.9

Kurt Busch.................................87.2

Joey Logano.............................. 86.8

Ryan Blaney...............................84.1

Erik Jones..................................83.3

Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2020 races (32 total) among active drivers at Dover International Speedway.
SOURCE: NASCAR Media

Last Year's Race Winners: 
Saturday, August 22, 2020 - Denny Hamlin
Sunday, August 23, 2020 - Kevin Harvick

My No-Brainer Pick: Kevin Harvick

My Final Four: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Cole Custer, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Second-look driver: This week's second-look driver is Alex Bowman who comes from the Hendrick Motorsports racing team and who has a proven-history of successfully navigating the high banks of Dover. The organization has 20 wins at the one-mile track, the most out of any team in the NASCAR Cup Series. Bowman has made 10 NASCAR Cup Series starts at Dover. He finished fifth in the second of two events at Dover last season. Alex has three Top 5 finishes here, which are the most Top 5 results at a single track for him. Since the 2019 season, Alex has has earned the third-most Top 5 results at this one-mile track among active drivers.

 
Last week's second-look driver, Tyler Reddick, ran a respectable day at Darlington, starting in 10th and finishing in 12th. The No. 8 car even led two laps. Over the past six races, Tyler has earned four Top 10s. He is now tied in points with Matt DiBenedetto for the coveted final playoff spot. For Tyler the difference maker has been hanging tough to the end of each race. 

 

“The biggest difference is just staying in the race, not necessarily mentally, but still allowing ourselves to have a shot and rebound. We, unfortunately, didn’t get off to a good start, so we were starting back in 30th or worse at some of these races and it wasn’t really allowing us a chance to score stage points. So, we just did a better job of taking some of those things out. And then, on top of that, when we have things go wrong, we’re doing a better job right now of bouncing back from that and getting at least a 10th or a 12th out of it.”

Points to Ponder:

• The second place starting position is the most prolific starting position in the field, producing more winners (20) than any other starting position at Dover International Speedway – the most recent was Denny Hamlin’s win on August 22, 2020.
• Hendrick Motorsports has the most wins at Dover in the NASCAR Cup Series with 20 victories among six drivers.
• Kyle Busch leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in runner-up finishes at Dover with four and in Top 5 finishes at Dover with 13 Top 5s.
• Kevin Harvick leads all active series drivers in Top 10 finishes at Dover with 21 and in laps led at Dover with 1,666 in 41 races.
• Kyle Larson (13 starts) leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at Dover with a 7.4. 

Remember, if you're playing Driver Group Game, make your picks by 2 p.m. ET on race day Sunday, May 16th.

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 15 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.

 
When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat, or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.