NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington

 

Going into this race weekend, I was a bit concerned about the 600 feet of unknown, the track repave at Turn 2. I'm not a fan of question marks going into the Playoffs. But after watching the Xfinity race I don't see it as a huge issue. In fact, by the time the Cup drivers race on it, both the Xfinity and Trucks Series will have run on it and it should have some more grip, playing into the hands of drivers like Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick.

This Week's Pick Strategy: A vast majority of the races in the Playoff, to the tune of 7 out of 10, will run the 750 horsepower package which have favored Fords. I'll load up on Fords and Darlington elites, putting more weight on veteran drivers. This track is nicknamed "Too Tough to Tame" for a good reason.

Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last five races*):
Kevin Harvick - 5
All with 4 - Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch

All with 3 -Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson

* 2019 & 2020 races ran the 550 horsepower package

Driver Rating - Top 10

Since 2005 - Factors in Wins, Finishes, Top-15 Finishes, Average Running Position While on Lead Lap, Average Speed Under Green, Fastest Lap, Led Most Laps and Lead-Lap Finish. A driver can score a maximum driver rating of 150 points per race. 

Top 12 Driver Ratings at Darlington

Kyle Larson............................... 111.5

Denny Hamlin........................... 107.3
Kevin Harvick............................104.4
Martin Truex Jr...........................103.9
Kyle Busch................................ 103.1

Erik Jones................................. 100.0
Brad Keselowski.........................96.1

Joey Logano............................... 91.1 
Chase Elliott .............................. 90.3
William Byron ............................87.1
Ryan Newman............................ 87.0

Kurt Busch ................................. 86.4

 

Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2021 races (19 total) among active drivers at Darlington Raceway.

SOURCE: NASCAR.com

Last Year's Race Winner:  Kevin Harvick

 

My No-Brainer Pick: Denny Hamlin

My Final Four: Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon, and Bubba Wallace.

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Erik Jones. Jones has one win here at Darlington and with his sixth-best driver rating is the best among non-Playoff drivers. He has one win, three Top 5 finishes and four Top 10s, and an average finish of 5.4.

Last week's second-look driver was Bubba Wallace. Bubba had a great race, starting 20th on the grid, finished third, and even led eight laps. After second-place finisher Chris Buescher’s No. 17 car was dinged with a post-race penalty and disqualified, Bubba was scored in second place. Despite the respectable finish, Bubba was visibly disappointed. “I don't know, that last restart our car felt slow, sluggish. The seas parted. When that wreck happened, I stayed in it, came out third. Not what we needed. Bummer. It was a solid day for us. This is the best I've kept a speedway car clean. Just some nose damage.”

Points to Ponder:

• No non-Playoff driver has ever won the opening race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. 
• Since the inception of the elimination-style format of the Playoffs in 2014, entering the Playoffs as the No. 1 seed has been the most successful seeding, producing three championships among two drivers – Kyle Busch (2015, 2019) and Martin Truex Jr. (2017). 
• 20 of the 120 (16.667%) NASCAR Cup Series races at Darlington Raceway have been won from the pole or first starting position; the most recent was Kevin Harvick in 2014.
• The first starting position is the most prolific starting position in the field, producing more winners (20) than any other starting position at Darlington. The outside front row (second-place) has produced the second-most wins (17). 
• Six of the 51 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington race winners are active this weekend: Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin with three wins each; Martin Truex Jr. with two wins; and Erik Jones, Brad Keselowski, and Kyle Busch each with one win here. 
• A total of 11 different manufacturers have won in the series at Darlington, led by Chevrolet with 41 victories, followed by Ford (31).
• Kyle Larson leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at Darlington with a 6.0 in seven starts. 
• Denny Hamlin leads all active drivers in second-place finishes at Darlington with three.
• Kevin Harvick leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top 5s at Darlington with 11 as well as in Top 10s with 16. Harvick also leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers with 792 laps led in 27 starts.
  

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your final picks on tonight at 6 p.m. ET. Enjoy the race!

Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 15 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.

When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat, or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.