Darlington fantasy picks pit veterans against desperados

 

NASCAR Fantasy Fusion

What a feel-good win last week at Daytona as Harrison Burton earned his first NASCAR Cup win by beating Kyle Busch, one of the all-time best wheelmen in the sport. The win was also the 100th for the storied Wood Brothers. Most of us watched helplessly as our fantasy rosters tanked with the multiple car crashes plus a fire and a couple of scary flips.

With the last race of the regular season and a Playoff berth on the line, Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain will be running hard on Sunday to clinch their spots, but there are about 17 other desperado drivers, led by Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon who don't plan to make it easy. This should be fun!

This Week's Pick Strategy: Darlington is a tough track that favors veteran drivers and rewards teams who have all the details buttoned up. All teams will probably need to pit at least nine times. "The Track Too Tough to Tame" eats up tires, so while I don't foresee teams trying a two-tire stop to save time on pit road, I'm sure we'll see teams short-pitting. I'm going heavy on veteran drivers and adding in a couple of desperados who run well here.

Drivers with Most Top 10s
By Race (5 races; 2019-2023)
Both with 4 - Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones

All with 3 - Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, and William Byron

Drivers with Most Top 10s
By Track (Includes 10 races* - 2019-2023)   

Both with 6 - Brad Keselowski and Erik Jones

All with 5 - Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott
All with 4 - Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Martin Truex Jr., and Chris Buescher

* 3 races in 2020

 

Last Year's Pole Winner: Christopher Bell

 

Last Year's Race Winner:  Kyle Larson

 

The Likely Suspects: My Darlington masters include Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano,  Austin Dillon, William Byron. Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, and Martin Truex Jr.

 

My 2 Cents: This week's no-brainer pick is a tie between Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski. My next picks are Kyle Larson, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, and Josh Berry. I will round out my roster with Carson Hocevar and Justin Hailey.
 

My Final Four: Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Ty Gibbs, and Carson Hocevar.

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Erik Jones. Jones and the No. 43 car are in a must-win situation to make the Playoffs, and Eric is a two-time winner here so it's definitely doable. In addition to his two victories, Jones has earned five Top 5s and eight Tops 10s for an average finish of
12.385, the fourth-best in the field.

And if you're into interesting numbers, did you know that the iconic Nos. 3, 21, 24 and 43 cars have never won in the same year? Perhaps the No.43 can make it happen this week. Stay tuned.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Wood Brothers Racing leads all organizations in NASCAR Cup Series poles at Darlington Raceway with 12 poles, followed by Hendrick Motorsports with eight.
• Ford leads the NASCAR Cup Series in poles at Darlington Raceway with 45 poles, followed by Chevrolet (22). 
  
• The front row starting positions combined have produced 31.7% of the race winners at Darlington Raceway with 40 wins coming from the two spots.  
• Joey Logano (2022 sweep) leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Darlington Raceway with two.  
  
• Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin (2010, 2017, 2020-2, 2021-2) leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in wins at Darlington with four victories. Hamlin also leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in second-place finishes with four, in Top 5 finishes with 13, in Top 10s with 17, in average finishing position with a 8.25, and in laps led with 979 in 24 starts.
• Eight of the 54 NASCAR Cup Series Darlington race winners are active this weekend: Denny Hamlin with four wins; Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones, and Martin Truex Jr. with two each; Kyle Larson, William Byron, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch each have one win. 
• A total of 11 different manufacturers have won at Darlington in the series, led by Chevrolet with 44 victories, followed by Ford (33).

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your initial picks by 12:20 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 31st and your final picks at 6 p.m. ET on race day Sunday, September 1st.

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 17 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.