NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Watkins Glen

 

William Byron certainly changed the narrative about his midseason performance by capturing his second victory of the season in the Iowa Corn 350 at Iowa Speedway. He also showed the field that his fuel-saving acumen is right up there with the best in the business. The win was Byron's 15th Cup Series victory and allowed him to reclaim the points lead from teammate, Chase Elliott. 

Byron starts 10th on the grid in tomorrow's race but needs a little something extra to compete with the likes of Shane van Gisbergen, Chase Briscoe, and Michael McDowell. It should be a fun one.

 

This Week's Pick Strategy: After watching practice and qualifying, I'm thinking the Go Bowling at The Glen could be the same song, different verse. While Watkins Glen isn't a technical road course track and should favor Cup Series Watkins Glen elites, with van Gisbergen and Connor Zilisch in the field, all bets are off.

My fantasy roster will go heavy on drivers who consistently run well on road courses regardless of the series they normally race in or how long they've been racing. I will add in a couple of the best of the best veteran NASCAR Cup series drivers who always seem to run in the top five at road courses regardless of the rules package. I'm shying away from Hendrick Motorsports this week. They seem to be missing something.

Active Drivers with Most Top 10s on Road Courses in Gen 7 Car (2022-2025*)

By Race & Track (21 Races)

Both with 15 - Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher

Chase Elliott -13

Both with 12 - Christopher Bell and Michael McDowell
AJ Allmendinger - 11
All with 10 - William Byron, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch
Alex Bowman - 9
All with 8 - Shane van Gisbergen, Ty Gibbs, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric

*Includes races at Charlotte Roval, Chicago Street Race, COTA, Indy Road Course, Mexico City,  Sonoma, and Watkins Glen
SOURCE: frcs.pro

 

Active Drivers with Most Top 5s at Watkins Glen (2019-2024*)

By Race & Track (5 Races)
Both with 3 - Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin 
Both with 2 - Kyle Larson and AJ Allmendinger

*No race in 2020
SOURCE: frcs.pro

 

Active Drivers with Most Top 3s at Watkins Glen (2019-2024*)

By Race & Track (5 Races)
Both with 2: Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson
SOURCE: frcs.pro

Last Year's Race Winner: Chris Buescher

The Likely Suspects: My Watkins Glen elite drivers include include Shane van Gisbergen, Connor Zilisch, Christopher Bell, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kyle Larson, A.J. Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, Austin Cindric, and Justin Haley.

My 2 Cents: This week's no-brainer pick is Shane van Gisbergen. My next picks are Connor Zilisch, Michael McDowell, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, and Chase Elliott. I'll round out my team with AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric.

My Fabulous 5 (Drivers most likely to finish in the top 5):
Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, and Michael McDowell.

NASCAR Fantasy Live Line-up: 

Ryan Blaney, Shane van Gisbergen, Austin Cindric, Ty Gibbs, and Michael McDowell. In the garage: Kyle Busch.

        

Featured Match-ups: Smith over Hocevar, van Gisbergen over Larson, Byron over Chastain, and Buescher over Byron.

 

Second-Look Driver: This week's second-look driver is Chris Buescher. He is the only driver to finish in the top 10 in all three Watkins Glen races in the Next Gen car. More importantly, he won this race last year with a last-lap pass of Shane van Gisbergen in the carousel to secure the dramatic victory.

 

Buescher will start further upfront this year (12th) compared to last year (24th). In his nine starts at Watkins Glen, he earned one win, one top five, and three top 10s for an average finish of 16th. He currently sits 16th on the Playoff grid, 23 points ahead of Ryan Preece, who is on the bubble. A win and a Playoff berth could certainly make his season. Stay tuned.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Of the 41 NASCAR Cup Series races at Watkins Glen, 10 have been won from the pole or first starting position (25%); the most recent driver to accomplish the feat was Chase Elliott in 2019.
• Denny Hamlin (2023, 2018), Kyle Busch (2011, 2017) and Chase Elliott (2019, 2022) lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Watkins Glen International with two poles each.
• Chris Buescher became the first NASCAR Cup Series driver to win a race at Watkins Glen starting outside the top 20 (24th starting position).
• Hendrick Motorsports has won the last five NASCAR Cup Series races with three different drivers at Watkins Glen, while prior to 2018 they had not won at Watkins Glen since 2001. This is the first time an organization has won five consecutive races at Watkins Glen International.
  
• Brad Keselowski leads all active Cup drivers in runner-up finishes at Watkins Glen with three, followed by Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr., both with two.
• Kyle Busch (second all-time) leads all active drivers in top-10 finishes with 13 as well as in top fives with seven, and in laps led at Watkins Glen with 249 in 1,694 laps completed (19 starts from 2005 to 2024).
• Christopher Bell leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in average finishing position at Watkins Glen with an 8.0 in four starts. 
  

Remember, if you're playing NASCAR Fantasy Live, make your final picks by 1:55 p.m. EST on Sunday, August 10. Don't forget to select your bonus match-ups.

 

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 18 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.