NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: COTA

 

Track Size: 2.40 Miles
Track Type: Multi-Elevational Counterclockwise Road Course
Number of Turns: 20
Race Length: 95 laps (228 Miles)

Last week at EchoPark Speedway Tyler Reddick became the sixth driver in NASCAR history to win the first two races of the season. Matt Kenseth was the last driver to do it. Oh, and guess what? Tyler Reddick leads the NASCAR Cup Series in average finishing position at the Circuit of The Americas with a 4.6 in five starts. Can Tyler do the three-peat? We'll have to wait and see.

This Week's Pick Strategy:  

Trackhouse Racing and 23IX Racing are pretty stellar here. I'm going to go heavy on those drivers and add in drivers with dirt track racing experience. This is a heavy braking track and dirt track drivers have amazing car control and know how to finesse the throttle way better than the vast majority of drivers.

 

Active NASCAR Cup Drivers with the Most Top 10s at COTA (5-races; 2021 to 2025)

Both with 5 - Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman

Both with 4 - Ross Chastain and Kyle Busch  

 

Active NASCAR Cup Drivers with the Most Top 5s at COTA (5-races; 2021 to 2025) 

Tyler Reddick - 4
All with 3 - William Byron, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, and Christopher Bell

    SOURCE: NASCAR Media

Active NASCAR Cup Drivers with Most Top 5s at Similar* Tracks 2022-2025 (12 races)

Both with 6 - Chris Buescher and Christopher Bell
Chase Elliott - 5
All with 4 - Shane van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger, Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Michael McDowell

  * Sonoma, Watkins Glen, and Charlotte Roval

 

Last Year's Pole Winner: Tyler Reddick

 

Last Year's Race Winner: Christopher Bell

 

The Likely Suspects:  These are my COTA elites drivers: Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Kyle Busch, Shane van Gisbergen, Kyle Larson, and AJ Allmendinger.

 
My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick is a tie between Tyler Reddick and William Byron. My next choices are Shane van Gisbergen, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Kyle Busch. I will complete my team with AJ Allmendinger and Todd Gilliland.

My Final Four: Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisebergen, Alex Bowman, and Todd Gilliland 

Second-look driver: This week's sleeper is Ross Chastain. Chastain won his first NASCAR Cup race here in 2022, and his 5.6 average finish ranks third among all drivers. Surprisingly, COTA is Ross' best track since 2023. In his three Cup Series races here since February 2023, he has earned one Top 5, two Top 10s, three Top 20s, and has led 10 laps for an average driver rating of 102.6. Ross currently sits 11th in the driver's standings. Can't wait to see if this week's run earns him a spot in the Top 10.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Five different starting positions on the grid have resulted in wins in the NASCAR Cup Series at Circuit of The Americas – 2021 (8th), 2022 (16th), 2023 (2nd), 2024 (1st), 2025 (19th).
• The deepest in the field a Cup race winner has started at COTA is 19th, by Christopher Bell in 2025.
• Three organizations have won in the NASCAR Cup Series at the Circuit of The Americas: Hendrick Motorsports (Chase Elliott, 2021 and William Byron, 2024); Trackhouse Racing (Ross Chastain, 2022); 23XI Racing (Tyler Reddick, 2023); and Joe Gibbs Racing (Christopher Bell, 2025).
• Five different drivers have finished runner-up in the four NASCAR Cup Series races at the Circuit of The Americas: Kyle Larson (2021); Alex Bowman (2022); Kyle Busch (2023); Christopher Bell (2024); and William Byron (2025). 
•  Tyler Reddick leads the NASCAR Cup Series in Top 5 finishes at COTA with four (2022-2025) and in average finishing position at the Circuit of The Americas with a 4.6 in five starts.
• Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman lead the NASCAR Cup Series in Top 10 finishes at COTA with five each (2022-2025).
• William Byron leads the NASCAR Cup Series in laps led at the Circuit of The Americas with 71 laps led (20% of his laps completed) in five races.

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your initial picks by 9 a.m. ET on Saturday, February 28th and your final picks by 3:30 p.m. ET on race day on Sunday, March 1st.  

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched  NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.