NASCAR Fantasy Fusion: Denny Hamlin's redemption run at Phoenix

 

 

Just wow! When you're hot, you're hot. Tyler Reddick is riding high on momentum, having won three consecutive races and making more history in the process. With the No. 45 car's win last week at the Circuit of the Americas, Reddick became the only driver in NASCAR history to win the first three races. The victory is his 11th NASCAR Cup career win. 

 

I didn't anticipate the new points system shaking things up dramatically, but boy, was I wrong. With the 15 extra points for a win (a total of 55) and additional points for stage wins, Reddick is literally outpacing the field with 186 points, which is 70 points ahead of teammate Bubba Wallace. 

There is only one Hendrick Motorsports driver in the Top 10 (Chase Elliott, 3rd), two Team Penske drivers (Ryan Blaney, 4th and Joey Logano, 6th), and no Joe Gibbs Racing drivers. Gotta say it's great to see all three Spire Motorsports drivers in the Top 10 though (Daniel Suarez, 7th; Michael McDowell, 9th; and Carson Hocevar, 10th). 

Hmm. Reddick isn't horrible in Phoenix, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a redemption run from Denny Hamlin, and last year's Champion, Kyle Larson, not making it easy for anyone. 

This Week's Pick Strategy:
Team Penske can run a master class for Phoenix Raceway, so Ryan Blaney needs to be on everyone's roster. While it's super tempting to load your fantasy team with the mega team drivers like Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin, there are some great picks from the Wood Brothers, RFK Racing, and Front Row Motorsports. I am going to weigh results from the spring races heavier than the championship races and favor drivers with a high potential to earn me qualifying points.

 

Drivers with Most Top 10s (Last 5 Years, 2021 to 2025):
By Race
Both with 4 - Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney

All with 3 - William Byron, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, and 
Kyle Busch 

By Track
Ryan Blaney -9
Kyle Larson - 8

Christopher Bell- 7 
All with 6 - Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Kyle Busch  

Last Year's Pole Winner: Ryan Blaney

Recent Pole Winners:
2024 Denny Hamlin

2023 Kyle Larson

2022 Ryan Blaney

Last Year's Race Winner: Christopher Bell

The Likely Suspects: My Phoenix go-tos include Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and Chris Buescher.  

 

My 2 Cents: My no-brainer pick this week is a tie between Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin. My next picks are Chris Buescher, Josh Berry, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick. I will complete my roster with Zane Smith and Carson Hocevar.  

My Final Four: Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, and Josh Berry.
 

Second-Look Driver: This week's sleeper pick is Josh Berry. Josh is sneaky good at Phoenix Raceway. In his five NASCAR Cup races here, he has earned one Top 5 and three Top 10s, which includes a fourth-place finish in last year's spring race and a seventh-place finish in November's Championship race. Berry's average finish here is 14.2, three-tenths better than Tyler Reddick's Phoenix average finish.

 

Points to Ponder:

• Denny Hamlin (2005, 2014, 2024, 2025) and Kyle Busch (2006, 2012, 2016, 2019) are tied for the most poles among active NASCAR Cup Series drivers at Phoenix Raceway with four each.  
• Five different manufacturers have won at least one pole in the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix Raceway, led by Chevrolet with 22 poles, followed by Ford with 17.
• A total of 29 different positions on the starting grid have produced winners in the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix Raceway. The first and third starting positions are the two most prolific starting spots, producing more winners (eight each) than any other on the grid. 
• 59.32% NASCAR Cup Series races at Phoenix Raceway have been won from the Top-10 starting positions. 
• Ten of the 32 Phoenix Raceway Cup Series winners are active this weekend led by Joey Logano (2024, 2022, 2020, 2016) with four wins, followed by Kyle Busch (2019, 2018, 2005) with three, Christopher Bell (2025, 2024) and Denny Hamlin (2019, 2012) tied with two, and Ryan Blaney (2025), Ross Chastain (2023), William Byron (2023), Chase Briscoe (2022), Kyle Larson (2021) and Chase Elliott (2020), each with one victory. 
• Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney lead all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers at Phoenix Raceway with four second-place finishes each.
• Denny Hamlin leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in Top-Five finishes at Phoenix Raceway with 17 Top Fives.
• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series in Top-10 finishes at Phoenix Raceway with 28 and in laps led with 1,190 laps led out of 12,602 laps completed (9%).
• Ryan Blaney (18 starts) leads all active Cup drivers in average finishing position at Phoenix with a 10.444.

If you are playing Driver Group Game, remember to make your initial picks by Saturday, March 7 at noon ET and your final picks by 3:30 p.m. ET on race day, Sunday, March 8th. (Don't forget to set your clocks ahead one hour for Daylight Saving Time [in most places]).

Enjoy the race!

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Carol D'Agostino has been playing Fantasy NASCAR for 19 years. She launched NASCAR Fantasy Fusion for Skirts & Scuffs in October 2011. Each week, Carol pores through statistics and combs through her personal notebooks to arm fans with analysis and picking strategies that will leave their friends wondering how they got so smart. Carol also does race coverage for Skirts & Scuffs at Richmond Raceway and occasionally at her home track, Dover International Speedway. She is also part of the distinguished NASCAR Expert Picks panel at frcs.pro. formerly called Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet. When she isn’t wielding her fantasy-racing superpowers, you’ll find Carol hammering out a news release or creating a marketing strategy at a small niche public relations firm she founded called Purple Cat or executing downtown revitalization projects for a small town on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.